(Elbil24): There are many dark figures surrounding car sales at the moment. Not only in Norway, but also elsewhere in Europe. At the same time, there are occasional bright spots.
If we look at Norway in isolation, we are not particularly suited to heavenly heights. When the first four months of the year are almost over, the signals are ugly.
If the low registration numbers of new cars continue to fall, as now, we may end up not reaching 100,000 first-time registered cars during the year. It would be a scandal for the industry as a whole, and for all those who make a living selling new cars.
And there have gradually become many of them, because the registration figures now show that we now have 46 different electric car brands in this country, and someone has to work to sell them.
When we know at the same time that we may not reach 100,000 newly registered cars a year, there are a lot of brands that will share a tiny bit of the cake. But that is a completely different matter.
Now this has become cheaper
Up and down
Jato Dynamics has again collected data, and delivered statistics on the European market, this time for the year, up to and including March. The figures are clear, and the summary says that March was the second month with a decrease in registrations since January 2023 – i.e. last year. In other words, things are going better in Europe in general than here at home in Norway, where the decline has been almost permanent since December 2022.
Jato also says that there is a sharp increase in demand for electric cars in the last month of the quarter. Hybrids are also basking in the glory with the highest number of registrations since 2021.
So it remains to look over the lists then, because which models are the best sellers, and which brands are the strongest when all the brand’s models are combined?
No surprises
Those who have been following along for a while know that the Tesla Model Y is not only Norway’s best-selling car so far this year, but they are also doing well in the rest of Europe. They do it so well that they were also number one in the month of March, with the VW Golf in full swing. This is despite the fact that Tesla had a decline of a whopping 42 percent compared to the same month the previous year.
The Golf, on the other hand, had an increase of 43 per cent, but despite the Model Y’s decline, and the Golf’s rise, it was not enough to topple the Model Y from the throne.
In third place in March we find a car quite unknown to Norwegians – Dacia Sandero. This has actually held the throne for a long time as Europe’s best-selling car, but is getting increasingly strong competition. Sandero reaches high on the charts in markets that are only looking for the simple, affordable, but at the same time functional.
– Like buying a pizza without tomato sauce, because the tomatoes are not fully ripe
Reality speaks
I said at the beginning that we should also look at the brand statistics, not just the models. And this is where reality kicks in. Because even if the Model Y is hailed as a bestseller in market after market, you don’t become a big car manufacturer by having one model in your garage that sells. Therefore, Tesla as a brand is not on the podium at all, when brand sales are counted.
At the top of the brand statistics we find Volkswagen, with Toyota in second place, and BMW in third place.
We first find Tesla down in 16th place, simply because it is the Model Y – and only that one – that pulls the load for Tesla. The other brands have a far wider product portfolio to lean on, something Elon Musk and Co are fully aware of. He also highlighted this during the recent quarterly presentation, where the sharp decline for the brand also became a topic.
151 models checked: These swing best and worst
Must take action
We should therefore not wonder if Tesla will come with a smaller and more affordable car, as has been discussed in the Tesla community and social media. But we may risk having to wait until it has been fully developed with the tools of the future, not today’s and yesterday’s.
Because it is always a risk to spend time developing something new, because by the time you have used up this time, the market has brought you back into development – that the product you have just developed is old-fashioned by the time it arrives on the market. This is precisely what we do not fear from Tesla’s side, which in many ways has led the development load in recent years.
Felipe Munoz is an analyst at Jato Dynamics, and he remains an optimist. As an example, he uses the average car price as an example, because those who still buy cars also pay good money for the cars. In Norway, the average price for a new car is around NOK 579,000 on average – a figure that is significantly higher than we could have imagined.
There is now a month left until Jato comes out with its reports, and it remains to be seen whether the growth will continue, or whether it will decline for another month. For Norway’s part, it is to be hoped that the tide will soon turn, and sales will once again point north.
The tables below are provided by Jato Dynamics:
