In March, the Ukrainian commander Oleksiy Tarasenko experienced a frightening change of pace in the Russian warfare with the aim of breaking through the Ukrainian defenses at Chasiv Yar in the industrial region of Donbas.
Instead of lighter infantry attacks, the Russians took big chances with larger and more powerful forces. Tarasenko’s soldiers destroyed up to 80 Russian tanks, but that did not stop the enemy, he tells the AP news agency.
The Russians took big chances in the safe belief that the Ukrainian ammunition was about to be used up, while the Americans argued over the military support package.
The Russians have taken the initiative
The US Congress’s decision on a military support package of 61 billion dollars brings Ukraine closer to an injection of new firepower that will quickly be deployed on the front against Russia. But time is running out and the Russians are close to their goal of winning their biggest victory since the invasion in 2020. The stated Russian target is to do so by the May 9, 1945 Victory Day celebrations.
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While the Ukrainians wait for reinforcements, Russia has taken the initiative on the battlefield and forced the opponent to cede tactically important areas meter by meter.
Wave after wave of mechanized units came at Oleksiy Tarasenko’s brigade. They were protected under an umbrella of attack drones and artillery fire. Now they have reached the edge of Chasiv Yar which is the entrance to the backbone of Ukraine’s defensive defenses in Donetsk.
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– They deployed disproportionately large resources against us. The most difficult thing is dealing with constant attacks from the enemy who do not stop even if they lose both equipment and crew, says Oleksiy Tarasenko.
Afraid that it will take time to get weapons in
The US military says it can get equipment into Ukraine just days after the military aid package was finally approved by the Senate and the president.
But experts and Ukrainian politicians fear it will take weeks for the equipment to reach the front. It will give Russia more time to weaken Ukrainian defenses.
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European allies are unable to match the scale of US arms aid. But this support comes with restrictions that prohibit the Ukrainians from using weapons from the West for attacks in Russia.
Ukrainian spokesmen say this limits their ability to hit the enemy’s most robust capabilities.
Ammunition rationing
Given that the new arms support will arrive within a couple of months, this opens the way for a late summer offensive from the Ukrainian side. Analysts believe, however, that the future support should not go to a large, decisive battle, but to a sustained strategy over many years.
AP has spoken to a dozen commanders over the past couple of months. They tell everyone that they have to ration shells and have to respond to Russian attacks with too little artillery ammunition. They are also in the process of going free of air defense missiles.
Since January, the Russians have taken 360 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. It is slightly larger than Malta.
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Destroys strategic positions
In several regions, Ukrainian units already reported in February that they had less than 10 percent of the necessary supplies. The worst is around Chasiv Yar where the Russians carry out daily drone attacks and bombs from aircraft without Ukrainian forces being able to defend themselves.
– They have simply destroyed our positions with massive attacks. Now the positions are under constant artillery fire. It is impossible to retake the positions. We have nothing to answer the enemy with, says Commander Jurij Fedorenko to AP.
A victory in Chasiv Yar will be able to break the line of defense that runs between the towns of Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Druzkhivka.
– If the Russians manage to take Chasiv Jar, they will be only 5-7 kilometers from the southernmost part of this defense line, says George Barros, who is an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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ISW is an American think tank funded by American arms giants such as Raytheon and General Dynamics.
Tens of thousands of new soldiers every month
New supplies will give the Ukrainians cover and help them beat back the Russians. But Russia will still have the advantage of more manpower and ammunition. The Russian military recruits 20,000-30,000 new volunteers every single month, and has a 6-1 advantage in the amount of artillery.
– The Russians do not have the feeling that they are losing critically important armored vehicles or soldiers who will not be replaced. That is their advantage, says commander Oleksiy Tarasenko.
