International shadow diplomacy is preparing for Trump to become president

They want to avoid the cold shower that Trump’s “America First” policy led to last time he was president. At the time, Trump surprised many by, among other things, starting a trade war, increasing the willingness to pay for NATO defense and withdrawing the US from the UN climate panel.

The news agencies Reuters and AFP have spoken to a number of diplomatic sources on five continents who all take into account that Donald Trump may be installed as the 47th president of the United States in January next year. The contacts include countries such as the UK, Germany, Australia, Japan, Mexico, Hungary, Poland and Saudi Arabia.

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Two foreign ministers ready in Mexico

Mexican envoys have met on a number of occasions with people close to Trump to discuss migration and the smuggling of the opioid fentanyl across the border. According to Mexican sources, they fear more pressure on these areas if Trump becomes president again.

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The Mexican strategy highlights how personal politics will become under a possible new government led by Trump. The ruling party in Mexico is considering two different candidates for the post of foreign minister, depending on whether it is Trump or Biden who is likely to win. Mexico will hold elections in June, and the new government will be installed a month before the US elections in November.

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Have spoken to several heads of state

On April 3, the New York Times reported on an alleged phone call between Trump and Saudi Arabian leader Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Neither Saudi Arabian sources nor anyone in Trump’s circle would comment on what the two talked about.

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In March, Trump received Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. After the meeting, Trump praised Orban as a “tough man” and for his “great statement” that will solve the world’s problems if Trump returns to the presidency.

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Last week, the conservative Polish President Andrzej Duda visited the Republican presidential candidate in Trump Tower in New York.

– He has done a fantastic job and is my friend. We had four great years together when we were both presidents. We may have to do it again, Trump said in a video on his Truth Social account after the meeting.

Common to meet diplomats

Presidential historian Jeremi Suri tells Reuters that meetings between diplomats and presidential candidates are completely normal. It is more unusual for state leaders to discuss with opposition candidates.

– Meetings and telephone conversations with world leaders show what we already know here at home. Joe Biden is weak, and when Trump becomes the 47th president of the United States, the world will be a safer place and the United States more prosperous, says adviser to Trump, Brian Hughes, to Reuters.

British attention

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron met Trump at his Florida residence Mar a Lago in April. Cameron told reporters that during a private dinner he and Trump discussed Ukraine, the war in Gaza and the future of NATO.

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As British Prime Minister, Cameron gave a number of unflattering characterizations of Donald Trump as a misogynistic “protectionist” full of xenophobia.

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The British opposition’s candidate for foreign secretary, David Lammy, has also given juicy characterizations of Trump. In an article in Time magazine, he refers to Trump as a “woman-hating neo-Nazi sociopath”. But like Cameron, he has met with Republicans who are likely to be earmarked for important roles in a new administration led by Trump.

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German industrial lobby

Germany also builds relationships. In pushing forward against swing states, they remind the Republicans that Germany is a heavy investor in American industry.

– If Trump is re-elected, it is extremely important to prevent the punitive tariff he is planning for goods from the EU, says Michael Vink, who coordinates the German effort towards Trump. He has met with Republican governors in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama and Indiana. At each stop, he has reminded that BMW is the largest exporter of American cars, and that the company has 860,000 employees in the United States.

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Uses interpreters for influence

Japan’s envoy to the Trump camp, Sunao Takao, acted as an interpreter close to Trump and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when they golfed together. The message Takao will sell is that the Japanese fear the consequences of new American trade protectionism and that Trump will demand more money to maintain the American military presence in Japan.

Among the most prominent foreign policy figures in the circle around Trump we find Rick Grenell. He is often singled out as a possible Secretary of State if Trump wins the election. He has had meetings with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. At the conservative CPAC conference in February, Grenell said that business deals are part of the Republican strategy.

– Part of our foreign policy is about avoiding the political conversations and rather finding ways of doing business that make us safer, said Grenell.