Ap behind Frp on new poll: – Symbolically very unfortunate

Aslak Bodahl

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FRP is experiencing good times. The party is now larger than Ap and has taken over the position as Norway’s second largest party, according to the survey carried out by Opinion for FriFagbevegelse and Dagsavisen in May.

– It is symbolically very unfortunate for Labor to be below Frp, but the result is well within the margin of error, Johannes Bergh, election researcher at the Institute for Social Research, points out to FriFagbevegelse.

15 years ago last time

Ap is not just going back – from a support of 19.4 per cent in April to 17.3 per cent now. The party must also come to terms with being behind the FRP in terms of popularity.

That has not happened in the measurements from Opinion since May 2008. That is 15 years ago. At the time, Frp and Ap were measured at 23.1 and 23 per cent respectively.

– This is a single poll, and there are several other polls that show that the distance between Ap and the Conservative Party is decreasing, says Ap party secretary Kjersti Stenseng

In this May poll, there is a difference of 0.5 percentage points between the two parties in the FRP’s favour.

– It is nice to see that more and more people want to replace Ap and Jonas Gahr Støre. He leads the most unpopular government I can remember in my lifetime, says Frp leader Sylvi Listhaug to FriFagbevegelse.

The FRP has not had a larger share of voters in the surveys from Opinion since December 2015.

– FRP has been in the wind in recent months and has increased by 5 percentage points from the start of the year to May, confirms advisor Maria Rosness in Opinion.

Not just immigration

Support is also higher now than when Sylvi Listhaug took over as party leader in 2021. The annual average of the party’s polls has risen gradually – from 10.1 and 12.8 in 2021 and 2022 to 13.4 per cent in 2023.

So far this year, the average of 14.9 percent is the highest the FRP has had since 2013.

– This shows that our preferred alternative of an FRP and Conservative government is possible, but the most important thing for us is that you not only change government, but also politics, says Listhaug.

According to Johannes Berg, the FRP has been working long-term to distinguish itself as an opposition party in a wide range of issues. It is no longer just about immigration, which has been the party’s core issue, but about topics that have to do with personal finances, the election researcher believes.

For example, the FRP is eager to give people more freedom by lowering both taxes and fees.

– The party has also distinguished itself in debates on foreign and defense policy – in addition to benefiting from mobilizing young voters and especially young men. FpU leader Simen Velle has also been very visible, and that has a positive impact on the FRP, Bergh believes.

Pure majority

The Conservative Party and FRP do not depend on any other parties on the bourgeois side to form a majority government. If this measurement had also been the election result, the Conservative Party and FRP would have received 50 and 25 mandates respectively – just enough to have power alone without help from the Left and KrF.

As the two latter parties are also above the blocking limit, the bourgeois have a clear advantage over the red-green side with a total of 101 mandates.

– This is an incredibly good measurement. Maybe even a little too good to be true, but it is clear that there is a majority for a new government in Norway, and that is what matters, says party leader Erna Solberg.

The swings are violent for the Right. Support in April was the party’s lowest since November 2021 and much lower than the average of other nationwide surveys in the same month.

The support of 22.2 per cent was a drop of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month. The drop in May is a whopping 5.8 percentage points.

– There are always some gaps in the measurements, and the progress of the Conservative Party in particular must be taken with a grain of salt, but the results for Ap and Frp are in line with the trend, Bergh points out.

Mobilizing couch voters

Høyre and Frp manage to mobilize some former sofa voters. Among those who did not vote in 2021, two out of ten would have voted for either the Conservative Party or the FRP if there were a general election tomorrow.

– We will stand right up until election day next year. Norway needs a government that will prioritize the most important issues for people’s lives and everyday life, and that looks ahead, believes Erna Solberg.

Both the Conservative Party and FRP are hijacking voters from Ap and Sp in government. While Ap mainly loses voters to the Conservative Party and Erna Solberg, SP leaks mostly to Sylvi Listhaug’s party.

– The movements away from Ap and Sp is something we have seen for a long time. That the right-wing wind is helping to mobilize the home sitters is a good sign for the FRP and the Conservative Party. They manage to bring in young men who initially vote to a small extent, says Johannes Bergh.

The most important thing for Ap now is to secure people’s finances, reduce waiting times in the healthcare system and strengthen the defense of Norway, according to Kjersti Stenseng.

– We work hard to gain trust from the voters, and are clear that Ap will create security and faith in the future, she says.