– It is a reality out there that we cannot escape

SOGNSVANN (Aftenposten): Developments on the battlefield in Ukraine are critical. It sets a clear mark on how Norway will spend money in the future.

Bird chirps. Buds on the branches. In nature, many signs that new life is about to force its way.

– There is a lot of beauty and niceness here today, but it is serious that I need to share. It is a reality out there that we cannot escape, says Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre among walkers and exercisers at Nordmarka’s gate.

He has taken Aftenposten with him where he often goes to think.

On Thursday and Friday, he and the government worked intensively on the proposal for a revised national budget.

The details will be presented on 14 May, but Støre is already aware that the war will leave a clear mark on the priorities in the budget.

– What is happening in Ukraine now is very serious. A lot is at stake, and the fighting is going on under increasingly strong Russian pressure. The situation has worsened over time. It is our responsibility to contribute, says Støre

In the revised national budget, this will mean:

• Support for Ukraine must be increased further. On Tuesday, Støre will meet the parties at the Storting to discuss the topic.
• The war is a reminder that the Norwegian defense must be greatly strengthened. The government has already announced that 2 percent of gross national product will go to defense already this year. It is in line with NATO’s goals.
• This investment must take place well within the rules of action. It is also important to Støre. One of the Labor Party’s most important promises in the run-up to next year’s election is that people will get better advice. Responsible financial management must contribute to a decrease in price inflation and interest rates can be reduced.

Critical at the front

What is it about Ukraine that makes Støre extra worried? He highlights three dimensions in the development of the war.

The situation along the front line, which he says is roughly the distance from Oslo to Bodø, is one.

– It is difficult to resist when the Russians are outnumbered in terms of people and to an increasing extent in terms of weapons. Ukraine has to make very demanding, strategic choices. They clearly tell us that it is critical. They are pressured, says Støre.

Now it is crucial to prevent a significant Russian breakthrough.

– It could have terrible consequences for Ukraine, says Støre.

Norway has joined a Czech initiative to ensure Ukraine has enough ammunition.

The second dimension is Ukraine’s ability to withstand the Russian missile attacks.

– There are also critical deficiencies in air defense, says Støre.

That is why it is absolutely essential to do more to protect Ukrainian cities.

Norway will join other Nordic countries, Germany and the Netherlands to contribute there.

Støre also highlights one positive feature. Ukraine has managed to clear the way for ships to sail out into the Black Sea from Ukrainian ports. The Russian fleet is kept at a distance. It is very important for Ukrainian trade.

Brutal and gloomy report

What will the Ukraine war cost Norway this year?

The Prime Minister says that what can be called Ukraine-related expenses will amount to over NOK 50 billion in 2024.

It includes both military and civilian support, as well as the reception of Ukrainian refugees here at home.

– There is money we could use for other things, but it is absolutely necessary to do this now, says Støre.

Recently let Osse Osse A regional organization consisting of 57 member countries that works for security policy, security and confidence-building measures, conflict prevention, crisis aid, human rights, as well as economic, technical and ecological cooperation.put forward a report on the treatment of civilians in the areas Russia has occupied.

– It is a brutal and gloomy reading that makes a strong impression on me, says Støre.

Through the Nansen programme, the Storting has approved five-year support of NOK 75 billion to Ukraine. But it may be necessary to increase the sum. Norway has already advanced money that was intended to be used in the coming years.

– There will be a question about how we do it in 2026 and 2027.

People should have more to mess with

In the government’s proposal for a new long-term plan for the defence, they put forward an investment of NOK 600 billion for the defense over the next 12 years.

– We must strengthen all the defense branches. We do what we think is necessary, and that is a lot, says Støre.

NTB wrote that the increase in defense budgets is NOK 15 billion in the revised budget and in the budget for 2025.

It requires priorities, but Norway is nevertheless in a special economic position. Last year, the Government Pension Fund abroad (Oljefondet) increased by around NOK 2,200 billion. It was a record. This year, the fund’s value increased by almost another NOK 2,000 billion in the first quarter.

It gives increased room for action, but it must not be used more than the action rule allows.

– Our goal is for people to get better advice. One of the most important contributions to better purchasing power is that the price increase will be significantly lower than the wage increase people can expect, he says.