Only ten kilometers from Bakhmut is Tjasiv Jar. The former industrial city had a population of around 13,000 before 2022. The vast majority of them fled when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The city is referred to as a strategically important city, which is located on a small hill in the otherwise flat landscape, perfect for having an overview of the surrounding area. It has served as a regrouping point for the Ukrainians and as a forward artillery base.
Ukraine fears that Russian soldiers aim to capture the city by May 9, the date Russia marks the Soviet Union’s hand over Nazi Germany.
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25,000 Russians are ready
Ukrainian defense authorities report that up to 25,000 Russian soldiers are now ready to storm the city.
– The situation is difficult, but under control. But there are a total of 20,000-25,000 men who will try to storm the city and the surrounding buildings, says Nazar Voloshyn to Reuters. He is the spokesman for the Eastern Military Command.
Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø is the main teacher at the Land Forces section at the Norwegian Military Academy and follows the war in Ukraine closely. He says Chasiv Yar has a key function for the Ukrainian defense. In addition, there is a canal just east of the city, which in itself is a kind of defense that the Ukrainians have and can benefit from.
– The city also controls access to the road system through Kostantynijvka to Kramatorsk, three miles to the north-west, Ydstebø says to Nettavisen.
Dramatic situation in new prestigious city
Recently, the Ukrainian defense chief Oleksandr Syrskyj was out describing the fighting in Chasiv Yar. He advocated that the situation there has worsened after the Russians stepped up their activity from the end of March.
Syrskyj says the city has been under constant Russian bombardment for a long time and that the situation is very tense.
Ydstebø says control of Tjasiv Jar will give the Russians an important starting position for a further offensive against Kramatorsk and the main Ukrainian defense positions in the area.
– Chasiv Yar is also a good starting point for Ukrainian attacks against Russian forces who had to try to penetrate north and south of the city.
Under heavy bombardment
And it is clear that the Russians have set out to conquer the old industrial city.
is a map service that, based on recent satellite images, shows heat development in near real time. By looking at the map of Tsjasiv Jar and the surrounding areas around the city, you can see that since 1 April there have been a number of major outbreaks that show heat development.
The red fields mark where heat development has been detected in and at Tjasiv Jar since 1 April:
The heat results can testify that there have been a number of bombings and fighting in the region where large areas have been affected. The findings build on the claims that Tjasiv Jar and the surrounding area have been exposed to massive bombardment since the end of March.
The Russians are approaching
Towards the end of last week there were reports that Russian paratroopers reached the edge of Chasiv Yar in the east. On Sunday, there were reports from Russia that Russian forces have reached “key areas” around the city.
The Russian Ministry of Defense also stated that the village of Bohdanivka, located three kilometers east of Chasav Yar, is now under their control.
Ydtsebø says that it will now be important for the Ukrainians to prevent the Russians from crossing the channel that runs east of Chasiv Yar.
– They must also destroy the equipment the Russians need to take over armored vehicles. The terrain, with low ridges, buildings and forested areas makes it difficult for the Russians to attack, and can give the Ukrainian defenders cover and cover to move forces and disrupt the Russian preparations and attacks, says the lieutenant colonel.
He points out that the most important thing for the Ukrainians now is that the forces receive a supply of artillery ammunition, and gradually more artillery fire and other material.
– Will be more exposed
Should the Russians manage to break through and capture the city, the Ukrainian main defense line will be more exposed, says Ydstebø.
– But it is also not easy for the Russians to attack further over open fields and which breaks up the terrain between Tsjasiv Jar and Kramatorsk.
– How difficult will it be for the Ukrainians to recapture the city?
– It is very demanding and expensive to conquer cities an opponent has got stuck in. In any case, it will not be easier than it was for the Russians to take Bakhmut, even though Tjasiv Yar is considerably smaller.
American mega aid package on the way
On Tuesday, it is expected that a vote will be taken on a support package for Ukraine in the US Senate, after it was passed in the House of Representatives on Saturday.
The package has a total value of over 95 billion dollars. 61 million of the dollars will go to Ukraine, while 13 billion dollars will go to military support for Israel and Taiwan will receive 8.1 billion dollars in support. In addition, nine billion dollars have been set aside for humanitarian purposes in Gaza and elsewhere in the world.
The aid package will be much needed for the Ukrainians and it is really long overdue. The package has previously been proposed as a collection package for several different purposes, but has now been broken up. According to the newspaper Politico, which covers American politics, the package will include armored vehicles, artillery ammunition and air defenses.
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– Decisive for Ukraine’s opportunities
Lieutenant Colonel Ydstebø says the package is very welcome, when it arrives.
– Very important, if not decisive, for Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian pressure. More support from both the US and the EU is probably required before Ukraine is strong enough to go on the offensive, then Russia must also be weakened economically and industrially with even tougher sanctions and continued Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil exports and industry.
According to the Washington-based think tank ISW, the missiles should be part of the US Ukraine package. Ydtesbø believes that will benefit the Ukrainians.
– They enable Ukraine to attack important targets in the Russian rear areas, as they did against advanced air bases in Berdjansk and Luhansk last autumn, and against a Russian air defense system in Krym last week, he says.
He adds that these missiles also have the range and warhead to destroy the Kerch Bridge, which will weaken the Russians’ ability to supply Crimea and the forces in the occupied areas to the south.
