Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear War | Horror scenario: So many people would have died in Oslo from a medium-sized nuclear bomb

NATIONAL MUSEUM (Nettavisen): On Friday, NukeExpo will be held at the National Museum in Oslo. One of the topics for the international nuclear weapons conference is what will happen if Oslo is hit by a nuclear attack.

The scenario is that a 100-kiloton nuclear bomb is detonated 300 meters above the ground above Majorstuen.

This corresponds to a medium-sized nuclear bomb, and is approximately six times more powerful than the bomb the Americans dropped on Hiroshima on 6 August 1945.

Richard Lennane, a political adviser at the International Red Cross, has drawn up the Oslo scenario.

– We chose to use a medium-sized bomb of 100 kilotonnes, which is common among nuclear arsenals on nuclear submarines. So it is not entirely unthinkable that such a bomb could have been used in Oslo, says Lennane to Nettavisen.

The scenario indicates that the nuclear fallout would have led to 93,000 immediate deaths and 115,000 injuries.

– What happens afterwards depends on how people react and respond. About people fleeing, how the wind blows and so on. But many more people will be burned. Many will be trapped in collapsed buildings, where no one will come to the rescue. So we can eventually double the number of deaths and triple the number of injured, says Lennane.

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Oslo scenario:

• Tuesday morning at 08:37. A cloudy April day with 11 degrees. People are on their way to work.
• People suddenly see a bright flash of light. Those who look directly at the light are instantly blinded temporarily (for hours or even days).
• A fireball 900 meters in diameter then appears. Extremely hot, hotter than the sun. Everything within a radius of 440 meters from the Majorstuen is immediately vaporized. Everything disappears.
• Then comes a powerful pressure wave of 5 psi (pressure unit) within a radius of 2.4 kilometers. Everything gets destroyed. Most Oslo hospitals are within this radius. Almost no one will survive. Doctors and nurses die or are injured.
• The pressure wave continues to move outwards, but decreases in force. At a 6 kilometer radius the pressure wave is 1 psi.
• Thermal pulse/heat pulse from the detonation will ignite anything flammable within a 2.4 kilometer radius. Everything will burn. Most everything within this circle is on fire.
• The heat pulse will cause third degree burns within a radius of 4.6 kilometers.
• Anyone who is outside, and is not protected, will receive third degree burns.
• Radioactive radiation is divided into two types: The immediate direct radiation and the fallout. The immediate radiation is triggered by the detonation itself, which will probably be a lethal dose to a radius of about 2 kilometers – for those who are not already dead.
• Wind strength and wind direction will determine how many people are affected by radioactive fallout.

– Total chaos

– I live on the edge of the six kilometer radius from the catchment area (Majorstuen). What will be my and my family’s chance of survival, Lennane?

– Not so completely wrong. You and your family will possibly be injured by glass because the windows have blown in as a result of the pressure wave. If you take the same precautions as in an earthquake, and stay away from the windows, you might be OK, says Lennane.

– But then there is radioactive fallout, panic, the electricity is gone. There is no form of communication. There may be no water supply. It is total chaos, he says.

– What about radioactive radiation. Don’t you want to die from it when the windows are broken, Lennane?

– At that distance from the impact area, you don’t have to worry so much about the direct radiation from the detonation, but if the fallout blows in your direction, you can become radioactively contaminated and get sick and die, he says.

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Terrifying

NukeExpo is organized by Norwegian People’s Aid and the Red Cross. Secretary General of Norwegian People’s Aid, Raymond Johansen, is himself present during the entire conference.

– The consequences are frightening, says Johansen to Nettavisen after seeing the presentation that deals with the Oslo scenario.

– Never before has it been said so often, and not least from a neighboring country, that they may be willing to use nuclear weapons. We must not become immune, he says.

Since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both President Vladimir Putin and former President Dmitry Mevedev have regularly threatened the West with nuclear weapons.

– A nuclear war can even go off accidentally or unintentionally. The more people who have nuclear weapons, the more places nuclear weapons are deployed, the greater the risk of that happening, says Johansen.

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– Do you get anxious when you hear Putin and Medvedev repeat these nuclear threats, Johansen?

– I probably get far too little anxious, and that is the problem. We talk a lot about deterrence – that it is so nice that we have nuclear weapons so that the war does not expand. But now we have to talk about disarmament. And to make that happen, we have to talk about the enormous consequences of a nuclear war, says the former Oslo city council leader.

– Those of us who talk about disarmament are seen as naive, while those who talk about deterrence are seen as realistic. It’s only true until it’s not true anymore. And the consequences of that no longer being true is that a nuclear bomb has gone off, says Johansen.