European summer: Heat, drought and precipitation

– I have taken concrete measures this year. This summer I am going on holiday in the inner Balkans. I have examined weather data, and the average temperature is 10 degrees cooler throughout the summer than in Sicily.

That’s what Erik Grendstad (29) says, who experienced the heatwave and forest fires in southern Europe last summer when he was on holiday on the Italian island of Sicily.

If the forecasts are to be believed, everything indicates that it could be a very hot summer in southern Europe – this year as last year.

The weather phenomenon El Niño, which is now on its way to abate, has contributed to record-warming world oceans, and the Earth’s climate will continue to be affected by this beyond the summer.

Threatened by enormous climate change

– Based on that, and the fact that it is already so hot in the Mediterranean and in the north of the Atlantic, there is reason to believe that we are heading for a very hot summer. But whether it will be a new record summer is difficult to say.

That’s what climate researcher Tore Furevik at the Nansen Center says.

In particular, it is the countries around the Mediterranean, which this year, as in previous years, will feel the heat the most, Furevik believes.

March was the tenth month in a row with record high temperatures globally, according to the EU’s climate monitoring service C3S.

– Pity the locals

Erik Grendstad (29) is among those who, despite the high temperatures, went on a solo trip to Southern Europe in 2023.

– I also examined weather data last year, and I went to Sicily with the understanding that when the average temperature is 30 degrees, there is a risk that it could be a few degrees warmer, he says to Dagbladet and adds:

– It was, of course, hot, and I understand that it is difficult for many to be stuck in a country with heat waves, and especially for families with children. But I mostly felt sorry for the local people who don’t have the opportunity to travel elsewhere.

Becoming greener: – Significant consequences

This year, he has planned a slightly cooler duo trip to the Balkan region, and he believes that more Norwegians will follow suit.

– This year, I think that fewer people will go to warm countries, after many felt the heat in southern Europe themselves last year. It has a greater effect than making an assessment based on weather data, says Grendstad.

– Looks pretty bad

According to the researchers, the trend will only continue and intensify in the coming years.

– The trend for southern Europe looks quite bad. It will be drier and more frequent heat waves. There will not be new heat records every year, but the tendency is more heat and more dryness.

When the air gets so warm, there will also be more extreme amounts of precipitation when it first rains, he points out.

– It leads to flooding.

Furevik highlights the storm “Daniel”, which hit Greece, Turkey and Libya, among others, last year and led to catastrophic floods and destruction.

Does not travel south

The heat in southern Europe means that several people have pointed out that the flow of holidaymakers will eventually go the other way – northwards.

– It’s not something I research, but those who look at such things clearly believe that Northern Europe will be a winner in the future, says Furevik, who himself never travels south in the summer months.

– It’s not just because of the heat. I like Norway in the summer. But I’m not very happy with the heat either.

Record high temperatures: – A death sentence

Not accurate

On the eve of last week, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) released its long-range forecast – the warmest summer forecast that has been made during the month of April since 2017.

Several media – including Dagbladet – mentioned the warning, under the heading “Warnings of record heat”.

Erik Kolstad is a researcher at Norce and Bjerknesenteret, in addition to writing the weather blog klimavarsling.no.

He believes the warning has been misinterpreted by the media.

– There are two things that are problematic. The warnings ECMWF has issued as early as April in previous years have proven to be inaccurate. It is too early to predict the summer weather in April. In addition, the wrong things have been considered in the notice, so the sum is meaningless, he says.

However, Kolstad agrees that the long-term trend in Europe indicates that it is getting hotter and hotter.

– Therefore, the probability of heat records also increases every year. But Europe is big, so it is difficult to say whether it will be in Greece, Italy or Spain. But it is likely to be very hot somewhere. It is almost inevitable due to the trend we have seen in recent years.

He points to climate change’s rule of thumb: Where it’s wet, it gets wetter, and where it’s dry, it gets drier.

Deadly heat wave: – Due to global warming

Summers like 2018

For Kolstad personally, in recent years it has become less relevant to go south, for example in July, he says. He also believes that the trend will be for southern Europeans to move north towards Norway.

However, Kolstad believes that Norway must also expect to be able to experience summers like 2018 again.

– The general trend is that the summer is getting warmer, and that makes it more likely from year to year to have a summer like 2018 again. Back then, it was several decades ago that a summer was as dry in Norway, but it doesn’t have to take as long the next time.

Kolstad believes that it is too early to say anything about how the summer weather will be in this country, because Norway is not particularly affected by weather phenomena such as El Niño and its counterpart La Niña, but rather random developments in the atmosphere, such as which patterns the wind follows.