Central bank governor Ida Wolden Bache indicated at the previous interest rate meeting that the first interest rate cut will probably come as early as September.
But at the end of March and through Easter, the krone has weakened, writes Finansavisen.
– Once again, the krone exchange rate is significantly weaker than expected by Norges Bank, and this speaks precisely for the first interest rate cut being pushed further out in time, says chief economist Marius Gonsholt Hov at Handelsbanken Capital Markets to the newspaper.
He points out that the interest rate path does not indicate a certain interest rate cut until December.
– And in the worst case, it is not ruled out that Norges Bank raises the interest rate once more, he believes.
– This is not pulled out of thin air. In the interest rate path, Norges Bank has retained a small option for a hike in the second quarter.
He points out that the dollar is still strong, and that one can only envisage a stronger krone exchange rate when interest rates are lowered in the USA.
Furthermore, he points out that Norges Bank settled on an estimate for the framework in the wage settlement of 4.9 per cent, while the parties in working life expect 5.1 per cent.
– The feedback we get from the working world is that Norges Bank has laid low. And if we get wage growth in the 5s and a weak krone at the top, a postponed interest rate cut and, in the worst case, a rise, is likely, Hov believes.
(© NTB)
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