This may be at stake when the long-term plan arrives

Finnmark Land Defence, the Home Guard’s task forces, the Coast Guard Command, the Mine Diver Command and the Alta, Oksøy and Skjold vessel classes.

They can all be hanging on by a thin thread, if one is to believe defense chief Eirik Kristoffersen’s professional military council (FMR). In any case, unless the long-term plan for the Armed Forces (LTP) provides more money for the Armed Forces.

In FMR, Kristoffersen recommended a budget increase of a total of NOK 80 billion over the next four years.

The new long-term plan will be presented to the Storting on 5 April. If it does not involve a significant increase, the Norwegian Armed Forces will have to adjust their priorities and ambitions downward, according to Kristoffersen.

Briefly explained: You have to cut some departments so that the most critical departments have enough, otherwise everyone will have too little.

In his professional military council, Kristoffersen dedicates a separate chapter to adaptations of today’s defence, with the current long-term plan as a starting point.

First and foremost, he recommends that the Coast Guard and the Border Guard continue as they are today.

According to Kristoffersen, the Norwegian Armed Forces must, as a minimum, retain a brigade, combat aircraft, air defense, maritime patrol aircraft (P-8A Poseidon), frigates, submarines, the area structure of the Home Guard and special forces.

The latter includes the Defense Special Command and the Marine Hunter Command.

But the chapter also contains a list of various cuts. These cuts are recommended if the budget not is increased.

Army and Joint Departments: No new 4th Mechanized Battalion

On land, he recommends, among other things, continuing the following:

• The commitment to long-range precision fire is being continued.
• The Army’s Intelligence Battalion continues as before.

If the budget is not increased, Kristoffersen recommends cutting and phasing out the following:

• Finnmark Land Defense in its current form is being closed down.
• New helicopters for the special forces are not being acquired.
• Today’s Bell 412 helicopters are used until they become obsolete and are then phased out.
• The special forces of the Armed Forces as a separate operational department in the Armed Forces are being discontinued. Force production must take place under the auspices of the Army and the Navy, through the Defense Special Command and the Marine Hunter Command.
• Joint departments, such as the Armed Forces’ sanitation and Cyber ​​Defense, must be adapted and reduced.
• The structures of the Army and the Home Guard, including the management, are being reduced. The task forces are cut and the current eleven HV districts are adjusted to four regions.
• Establishment of the 4th mechanized battalion in Brigade Nord is terminated.
• The ambition for a joint recruit school at Terningmoen must be put aside. Recruit training must be carried out in the operative departments, except for Garden.

According to the defense chief, these cuts will result in a weakened reaction capacity and endurance.

Nor will the defense meet NATO’s demands for land forces. The level of operational ambition must be adjusted down and the Norwegian Armed Forces will be less present in the northern areas.

Navy: The Skjold class postponed

As far as the Norwegian Navy is concerned, the Chief of Defense recommends that a core around frigates and submarines be continued. The frigates will have a reduced capability compared to today.

The logistics vessel KNM Maud and the Coast Guard should continue as today.

The following should be cut or phased out earlier than planned:

• Minesweeper Command.
• Coast Guard Command.
• The minesweeper squadron with the Alta and Oksøy classes.
• The corvette squadron with Skjold-class vessels.
• Navy sanitation.
• Navy Logistics Command and the Reine class.

According to the defense chief, this will result in “significantly lower impact”.

– The defense will not be able to meet an ambition for sea control and must focus on denial, he writes.

The Air Force: Bell and Hercules can be hit

In the air domain, Kristoffersen recommends “purifying the Air Force’s primary mission”. It will ensure control in the air and contribute to anti-submarine warfare. Fighter aircraft, air defense and maritime patrol aircraft form the core, together with the air warning radars.

These must therefore be shielded to the greatest extent possible. Maritime helicopters will continue, he writes.

He then recommends the following cuts:

• Bell 412 helicopter capacity is not upgraded and the helicopters are phased out when they have reached their useful life. This means that helicopter support for the Police will cease.
• The ongoing procurement process for new tactical transport helicopters for the Army and the special forces ends.
• The Norwegian Armed Forces’ C -130J Hercules tactical transport aircraft is being terminated.

– All in all, cuts in the air domain will result in a reduction in the Armed Forces’ mobility and responsiveness, as well as the ability to react to situations at home and abroad, writes Kristoffersen.

Can “weaken the alliance’s cohesion”

This list is therefore what is recommended if no more money is allocated to the defense budget. This will mean that the Armed Forces will be significantly weakened.

Thus, allied reception and host support by, among other things, American forces must be prioritized as far as possible, writes Kristoffersen. Such a defense will mean that Norway complies with NATO’s Article Three to a “less extent”.

Article three states that states must maintain and develop the ability to individually or collectively resist armed attacks.

According to Kristoffersen, this will “contribute to weakening the alliance’s cohesion and collective defense and deterrence capabilities”.

The new long-term plan will apply from 2025 to 2028. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre (Ap) has previously announced that it will secure the largest allocations to the Armed Forces since the Second World War.

Before the plan is presented, it is already clear that a move of the Norwegian Armed Forces’ command school, from Sessvollmoen to Kjevik, is one of the recommendations in the plan. On Friday 15 March, the government submitted proposition 59 S to the Storting, where NOK 2.5 billion has been set aside for the Coast Guard Command.

The government has also announced that the upcoming long-term plan will mean that Norway reaches NATO’s two percent target. The goal is for this to happen as early as 2024.