This is how a war over Taiwan will affect Norway

A rain of missiles falls on key defense facilities and strategic targets in Taiwan. The bombardment lasts for several days, before a landing force of several tens of thousands of soldiers ventures across the Taiwan Strait from mainland China.

A fleet of Chinese warships block access to Taiwan, to stop supplies and military support from the island’s allies. Taiwan defends itself with anti-aircraft systems, surface vessels and defense installations along the coast. The United States and Japan send forces and material to defend the island.

This is just an imaginary sequence of events. But the threat is very real. Many experts fear that China will attempt to subjugate Taiwan by force in the coming years.

– The uncertainty is great enough that we should devote time and attention to it in the context of preparedness, says Ragnhild Siedler at the Norwegian Defense Research Institute (FFI).

Voids in the North Atlantic

Siedler has led a project that has assessed the consequences for Norway should China choose to go to war. In the report “Wargaming Taiwan 2027 – the China-USA conflict and Norwegian defense planning”, the FFI researchers conclude that a military conflict is a plausible scenario.

Although it is unlikely that Norway will become directly involved in the conflict, it will be of great importance if the US chooses to go on Taiwan’s side. The Americans will have to draw resources from other parts of the world to the Pacific, and Norway risks having to increase its contribution in the Atlantic and the Arctic.

– After all, we operate and monitor and are present in the North Atlantic, and that is one of the most important things we do for Americans and for ourselves. You can look at what kind of resources the Americans will need in a conflict over Taiwan, says FFI researcher Tore Nyhamar, co-author of the report.

He highlights surveillance capabilities, aircraft and naval vessels. And when the US withdraws, the void must be filled by Norway and other European countries.

– Then it’s just a matter of thinking up: What could be in short supply? What will the Americans want to send to the Pacific? The satellites cannot be sent, so they will probably hang. Surveillance aircraft? Yes. Patrol vessel. Marine vessels in general. Everything that is of flight capacity, says Nyhamar.

Russian aggression

Other consequences for Norway are that Norwegian ships may need military protection in areas exposed to risk and that the Norwegian Armed Forces must contribute to the evacuation of Norwegian citizens in the region. Another security challenge is Taiwan’s dominance as a producer of semiconductors, a key component in computers.

The researchers also do not rule out that the US will ask for military support in the Pacific region, although they believe it is unlikely that Norway will receive a request to contribute directly to the defense of Taiwan.

– You cannot rule it out, and it could become such a tense situation. But it could be an attempt to show strength and that there is a large coalition behind Taiwan. This could have a political effect in a protracted drama before an invasion, says Nyhamar.

The researchers also point out that there may be room for increased Russian aggression against Norway as a result of a conflict in Taiwan.

– In a looming crisis ahead of the conflict itself, the Russians will be able to support China in one way or another. The other thing that should worry Norway significantly more is whether it creates an opportunity for Russian aggression in our areas when the Americans are busy with their own, says Nyhamar.

This could include everything from hybrid warfare and disinformation campaigns to threatened presence in the North Atlantic.

– Win or loose

Regardless of the outcome of a war, the result will have consequences for Norway.

“If China succeeds in invading Taiwan, it will have broken through the first island chain and weakened the US’s position in the Pacific. In the long term, a rebuilt Chinese military power can be used for new tasks that can provide an increased presence globally,” the report states.

If Taiwan wins, it will also have consequences for the security situation in Norway.

– What does it do to the United States? Will they have to invest so much and lose so much that it has consequences for their ability to project global power? asks Siedler.

Another possibility is that China is destabilized and the Chinese regime crumbles as a result of a military loss.

– There are many who point out that the regime’s legitimacy is at stake here. I’m going to be careful not to be very predicative and say that the regime is falling and all that, but put it a bit on the tip, it’s win or lose. You have to go all in, says Siedler.

Taiwan special

This is how the war over Taiwan will turn out