May forex seasonals: The strongest month for the Dollar Index
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The month of April wraps up today and it was a volatile market, certainly not one that’s typically the strongest seasonally of the year.
Scorecard for April:
Typically the strongest of the year for cable (down 120 pips)
Strongest month for the S&P 500 (down 2.9%)
Copper seasonally strong (up 14.7%)
Oil strong April-June (down 2.1%, though was stronger until this week)
Strongest month for AUD/USD (flat) and AUD/JPY (up 360 pips)
Second-best month for EUR/USD (down 90 pips)
Second-best month for Shanghai Comp (up 2%)
The takeaway here is that China-related trades did well, along with betting on the ongoing yen decline. Dollar trades and risks traders were wounded by stubbornly high inflation and the way that goes will go a long way towards determining what happens in May. That said, seasonals are almost as positive in the coming month.
Numbers since 2000 for May:
Strongest month for the Dollar Index
Weakest month for EUR/USD
Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
AUD/CAD is particularly weak, softest month by far
Second-strongest month for copper
Strongest month for oil, although probably skewed by the massive percentage gain (+88%) in May 2020
Breaking it down, the first week of May is generally the strongest for stocks while the second week is the weakest
