Summer is fast approaching, and most Norwegian media have already published articles predicting warmer temperatures and sun ahead.
A post on https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1780222086239195446 from the Finnish climate scientist Mika Rantanen, where he predicted a record hot summer in Europe, led to both Dagbladet and VG publishing articles that Norwegians could expect the hottest summer in seven years.
But is it really possible to correctly predict what the weather will be like three months into the future?
Climate scientist: – Little or no accuracy
Climate researcher Erik Kolstad at the Climate Futures research center reacts to the media reports.
– This is rather misleading, he writes on the blog of the research center Climate Futures.
Below you can see the post on X that made the headlines.
The climate scientist justifies this by the fact that forecasts made so far in advance rarely turn out to be correct.
– It is also part of history that summer warnings produced as early as April have little or no accuracy, he writes further.
But those who are anxiously waiting for correct forecasts for the summer weather do not have to wait too much longer, we believe Kolstad:
– It is much better to look at the warning that comes in May, it has much greater accuracy, Kolstad elaborates to Klikk.no.
New calculation
Kolstad points to what he believes is a significant error in Rantanen’s prediction.
The Finn has compared the forecasts for 2024 with forecasts from previous years. Kolstad has made his own calculation, where he rather compares this year’s forecasts with the actual temperatures of the previous years.
Then the result was something completely different.
According to Kolstad’s calculations, the probability that the summer will be record hot is less than 40 per cent.
At the same time, he clarifies once again that his prediction is also not of significant accuracy, as it is still a long time until summer.
Tags: Weather forecast Climate researcher Climate scientist reacts record heat warning Misleading
