The short version
- Meteorologists and climate scientists discuss what the long-term forecast from the European Weather Agency (ECMWF) means for the Norwegian summer weather.
- Forecasts show that there is a 40-50 percent probability of a hot summer in Norway. In southern Europe, the probability is higher and lies at 50 to 70 percent.
- There is still great uncertainty connected to this, especially in this country it is difficult to predict the weather. Climate change makes it even more difficult.
- In May, the meteorologists in Norway come out with their forecasts for the summer weather.
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There are many indications that Norwegians are starving for warmth after a long and record cold winter – which still (!!) has not fully released its ice grip.
Therefore, it is not surprising that many rolled their eyes when the long-term forecast from the European Weather Agency (ECMWF) came, and the Finnish meteorologist Mika Rantanen wrote that the forecasts were the warmest since 2017.
That analysis has caused Norwegian meteorologists and climate scientists to frown.
– The uncertainty is great, says Per Egil Haga of the Meteorological Institute to VG.
Can get hot
He explains that such long-term forecasts say something about the likelihood of a warm or cool summer. Because we are only in April, the forecast is not very accurate.
Haga says this about the forecasts:
- IN Norway the probability is 40 to 50 percent for a hot summer.
- IN South Europe the probability is higher and lies at 50 to 70 percent.
This applies to the summer as a whole, i.e. June, July and August. Every day will therefore not be as hot, some days it will be cooler and rainy, says Haga. Nevertheless:
– The probability that it will be warm is relatively high, says the meteorologist.
But, as anyone who has played the Lotto or bet on football knows, there is always the possibility of the least likely option winning.
– Will we have a terrible summer?
– We are not in a position to say that, but there is a higher probability that we will have more good weather days, says Haga.
Climate scientist: Misleading
The Finnish climate scientist Mika Rantanen has compared all the summer forecasts from ECMWF for the years 2017 to 2024, and concluded that this year’s forecast is the warmest of the forecasts for Europe since 2017.
Climate researcher Erik Kolstad at NORCE and the Bjerknes Center disagrees with the presentation.
He has compared this year’s forecast with how the summer weather actually turned out in the years from 2017.
– It makes more sense, because the notifications were probably wrong. The model shows that there is not a particularly high chance of the summer being the hottest, says Kolstad.
The graph shows the same as meteorologist Per Egil Haga says, there is a low probability of a record hot summer in Norway. Further south in Europe, the probability is higher.
– What exactly is a hot summer in 2024?
– In southern Norway, July 2014, 2018 and 2021 were warm, while the last two July months have been cold. Further north in the country, July 2014, 2018 and 2023 were the warmest.
– The long-term trend is for summers to get hotter, so it becomes more and more likely that new heat records will be set every year. Nevertheless, we can have cold summers, says Kolstad.
Researcher at NORCE and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research
Finnish Rantanen says to VG that he wanted to show how global warming also affects weather forecasts.
– I agree with what Erik has written. He has taken the analysis a few steps further than I did, says Rantanen.
– What I showed was that the average forecast was the warmest of the previous forecasts, that does not mean that it will be the hottest summer ever, he says.
More difficult to warn
Meteorologist Per Egil Haga, climate scientists Erik Kolstad and Mika Rantanen all agree that forecasts so far into the future are not very accurate.
Climate change does not make it any easier to predict either.
– The weather in Norway is chaotic in nature and therefore not as predictable as in the south. It is therefore difficult to predict far into the future. We are unable to keep track of the chaos, says Haga.
– We also have a changing climate. That means less predictability in what the weather will be like, and then it will be even more difficult to come up with forecasts, he continues.
We saw that last summer, when we had a heat wave and the forest fire, downpours and floods.
– We will probably get more of this, says Haga.
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DRY: Forest fires raged on the island of Mlini in Cyprus last July. -
WET: Tourists from all over the world traveled to Bergen last summer to escape the heat. -
FLOOD: Extreme weather “Hans” ravaged Hallingdal in August last year.
DRY: Forest fires raged on the island of Mlini in Cyprus last July. Photo: Kristian Eidesvik / Kristian Eidesvik
WET: Tourists from all over the world traveled to Bergen last summer to escape the heat. Photo: Gabriel Aas Skålevik / VG
FLOOD: Extreme weather “Hans” ravaged Hallingdal in August last year. Photo: Gisle Oddstad / VG
– Many are longing for summer and warmth now. Is there any indication that we will have a hot summer when we have had a very cold winter?
– January was bitterly cold, so now we long for sunshine. We are a bit weather sick, says the meteorologist and continues:
– We have no static basis for saying that we will have a warmer summer after a cold winter.
However, they agree on one thing. If you want to know something about the summer weather before you plan your holiday, you should wait to book your tickets until May.
– If you wait until May, the forecasts are slightly more certain, says Haga.
Watch the video – this is how the animals cooled down last summer:
