Macron’s threats of military intervention: – Such a scenario puts the US in a predicament

– I think this is a solo move from the French president. The French initiative can also be interpreted as a sign that Europe must prepare to take matters into its own hands in the event that Trump takes over as US president next year. Because then the Europeans will risk having to take greater responsibility for the war themselves. In this sense, it is advantageous, seen from French eyes, to start the mental adjustment within Europe.

This is how Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations at the Norwegian Staff School, interprets Macron’s latest move. He believes that the French president will wake up other European leaders from their slumber.

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– The Europeans must be tougher in the meeting with Putin. Not least by emphasizing a strategy that is more similar to the Russian one, namely putting hard against hard. So far, the Europeans have not done this. Nor the United States. Thus, from the French side, one would be able to claim that Western negligence only invites more pressure from the Russian side, says Heier.

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– The US becomes a kind of hostage

He believes Macron’s tough warning can be understood as a traditional French attempt to take a stronger leadership role in European security policy.

– For generations, France has been eager for more European autonomy in its relationship with the United States. And when the Biden administration is characterized by political action paralysis as a result of the Republican far-right wing in Congress, this is a welcome opportunity to display more forward-leaning leadership. And Macron can safely do that, says Heier.

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At the same time, France is playing high by issuing such a clear warning to Russia.

– Macron knows that if he were to go to war with Russia inside Ukraine, and France is in danger of being attacked by Russia, it will be very difficult for the United States to sit with its hands in its lap. It would be the same as saying that the United States does not come to the aid of its most important allies in a Europe where two of the continent’s most powerful states collide. In that sense, the US becomes a kind of hostage to Macron’s plans, Tormod Heier concludes.

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– Many will be able to turn to France

– How will Russia respond to this?

– It is only the imagination that sets limits on how the Russians will respond to a military involvement in Ukraine. Russia, for example, will put its nuclear forces on a higher alert since they will technically be at war with a French nuclear power. In that case, this will cast deep shadows over the continent, and many in Europe will be able to turn against France and accuse them of irresponsibly high stakes.

– Other Russian countermeasures will be to put French forces in Ukraine higher on the priority target list. In that way, any French losses could act as a deterrent to other western countries that might want to get involved, Heier believes.

– This will change the balance of power

He believes the Russians will also carry out a series of hybrid attacks, physical and digital, against French critical infrastructure, against civil society and French interests in other parts of the world.

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– At the same time, what the Russians can do is also limited. Because if France is attacked by Russia, the French can invoke Article Five protection through NATO, and this will change the balance of power. But such a scenario, of course, puts the US in a predicament since it does not seem to have a desire to escalate the war beyond Ukraine.

– Can bring NATO to the brink of nuclear war

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Virginia Mayo / AP / NTB Photo: NTB

– Will Russia distinguish between French forces and NATO forces?

– It remains to be seen. But for Russia, it would definitely be an advantage to separate French forces from NATO forces. This is because Russia is a military gnat compared to NATO. So if Russia were to attack NATO countries because France is sending forces to Ukraine, the balance of power will tip in favor of the West.

– On the other hand, the Russians can also threaten the West by regarding French forces as a disguised NATO operation against Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine. If so, Putin will be able to build up enormous nuclear pressure on Europe and NATO, which will lead to France bringing NATO to the brink of nuclear war. This is of course hypothetical, but equally very dramatic, explains the professor.

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– A nuclear ragnarok

He believes that such a scenario could be very fatal for all parties.

– It could backfire on France, and even more seriously, on NATO itself, since no one in NATO wants the Ukraine war to escalate and drag everyone into a nuclear ragnarok. But Putin doesn’t want this either. Therefore, it is a high stake that a possible French entry into the war must not push Putin into a corner where nuclear weapons become the last resort. Instead, perhaps the French forces will contribute in the rear lines so that Ukrainian forces can be released which can contribute to the stabilization of rather fragile front lines.

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– The Russians are not particularly good at waging war

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: NTB

The professor of military strategy and operations believes that Putin has calculated that the West, and NATO in particular, has no desire to be drawn into a war that could set the whole of Europe on fire.

– Putin knows that the Europeans and the US do not dare to escalate the war in Ukraine beyond Eastern Europe.

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On the other hand, he believes France has concluded that Russia is greatly weakened after 26 months of intensive warfare with enormous losses.

– More than two years into the war, the French seem to understand that the Russians are neither particularly good at waging war, nor are they as dangerous as Western intelligence services, including the Norwegian one, initially thought. France and the rest of the West see a Russia that has eroded the credibility of its own nuclear forces.

– A Russia that has no more offensive combat forces with breakthrough capacity left. They only have a fragmented and poorly trained land military combat system which can only win if they continue the attrition strategy towards Ukraine, sums up Tormod Heier.