In Milwaukee this weekend, two division leaders will face off in one of the premier matchups of the weekend. The Brewers welcome the Yankees to American Family Field this weekend in what will be an exciting series.
When these two teams met last year, the Brewers took the series 2-1 in New York. However, the story of the series was game three. For the second time in his career, Corbin Burnes had thrown eight no-hit innings, and the bullpen added on two more. However, the Brewers offense couldn’t back up Burnes, and they ended up losing 4-3 in 13 innings.
Despite the early IL stint for Christian Yelich, the Brewers offense has not missed a beat. It’s hard to find a weak spot in this lineup. Willy Adames has bounced back from a rough 2023, and William Contreras has become the potential new MVP of the lineup. Brice Turang has improved a lot in his second year, and Blake Perkins has been a surprisingly good replacement for Yelich. The veteran additions of Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sanchez have started to heat up, while Joey Ortiz and Jackson Chourio are getting more experience in the majors.
The Yankees have a top-10 offense in all of MLB, although how they have achieved that is a little unconventional. Their team batting average (.236) is 19th in all of MLB, but their OBP (.328) is tied for sixth and wRC+ (110) is eighth. Three of the Yankees’ regular starters (Austin Wells, Gleyber Torres, and Aaron Judge) all have batting averages below .200. Despite that, Judge still has an above-average 108 wRC+, as well as a .319 OBP.
Juan Soto has been leading the Yankees offense, batting .319/.431/.564 with six home runs and 22 RBI in his first season in the Bronx. Anthony Volpe is their young star, batting .293/.369/.424 in his second year in the majors. The lineup also has the usual high-salary superstars with Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Torres, and Judge in the lineup.
With the rotation in a bit of turmoil, the Brewers bullpen has kept the pitching staff strong. They have shown confidence in several relievers, with Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, Hoby Milner, and Trevor Megill all recording saves this season. Bryan Hudson has been a good long reliever, helping eat up innings when the starters have short days. Even the “middle relievers” in Elvis Peguero, Thaygo Vieira, and Jared Koenig have been reliable for the team.
The Yankees bullpen is led by Clay Holmes, who has taken on the closer role this season. He has not allowed an earned run in 12 innings but has allowed three unearned runs. He also has nine saves so far. Behind him in the bullpen are Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzalez, Dennis Santana, and Ron Marinaccio. As a whole, their bullpen is around league average, with the relievers posting a 2.86 ERA and 3.91 FIP. They aren’t a strikeout-heavy bullpen, with their 7.29 K/9 near the bottom of all of MLB.
Probable Pitchers
Friday, April 26 @ 7:10 pm: Luis Gil vs. Colin Rea
After missing a year and a half following right elbow surgery, Luis Gil is back in the rotation for the Yankees. He’s had a good return year so far, posting a 2.75 ERA and 2.95 FIP in four starts this season. He has a strong 13.3 K/9 strikeout rate but has also been prone to allowing walks (7.8 BB/9). In his last start against the Rays, he pitched 5 2⁄3 innings and allowed no earned runs.
Colin Rea is coming off a strong start against the Cardinals. His five scoreless innings were key to the Brewers in their 2-0 win. So far this season, he has a 2.08 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 14 strikeouts, and six walks.
Saturday, April 27 @ 6:10 pm: Carlos Rodon vs. Joe Ross
Carlos Rodon is in his second season with the Yankees after signing a massive deal before the 2023 season. His 2023 season was marred by injuries, and he only made 14 starts and had a 6.85 ERA. This season has been going better for him, as he has a 2.70 ERA and 4.17 FIP in five starts. His last start was stellar, pitching seven innings with no runs and just one hit and two walks allowed.
Joe Ross has been a solid pitcher for the Brewers after dealing with injuries for a few years. He last pitched on Monday against the Pirates, allowing one earned run in the 5th 1⁄3 innings as he took the loss. He has a 4.05 ERA and 3.36 FIP this season.
Sunday, April 28 @ 1:10 pm: Marcus Stroman vs. Tobias Myers
Marcus Stroman signed with the Yankees in the offseason after spending two seasons with the Cubs. The Brewers are familiar with Stroman from that time, as he made five starts against the Brewers in the past two seasons. In his career against the Brewers, he has a 2.58 ERA over seven starts. His numbers this season are similar with a 2.93 ERA in his four starts. He did get roughed up in his last start against Oakland, allowing three runs in 5 1⁄3 innings.
With the rotation taking some hits in the last week, Tobias Myers has been called up to help fill the rotation. He made his MLB debut on Tuesday, and he pitched well with just one earned run allowed in five innings. He’ll get the ball again in Sunday’s series finale.
Prediction
While the Brewers have taken the series over the Yankees the last two years, it will still be a tough series for them. These two teams are pretty evenly matched if the young season’s results are any indication, and I expect each game to be a good one. This could go either way, but I’ll barely give the Brewers the 2-1 edge, if only due to home-field advantage.
