(Nettavisen) After electricity prices calmed down a bit at the weekend, the stage is set again for another day where price records are set this autumn.
It happens after bad news in several areas.
Average prices in southern Norway will be NOK 1.75 on Tuesday, a price level we will have to go back for well over half a year to see.
The price peak in the morning and late afternoon pushes prices above two kroner.
It will also be another day with relatively similar prices across the country, but it will be marginally cheaper in the north.
Extreme prices in Finland
The price level in Norway, on the other hand, is nothing compared to what they experience in Finland and the Baltics.
In Finland, the price really skyrockets, and they end up with a price peak of NOK 9.13 – before tax. This corresponds to a Norwegian electricity price of well over NOK 11.
– The new nuclear power plant in Finland failed at the weekend, and then 1,600 MW will disappear from the Finnish grid, power analyst Tor Reier Lilleholt in Volue tells Nettavisen.
However, it will not be a long-term situation:
– They have said it will start up again gradually tomorrow, he reassures.
The reason why the Finnish prices do not spread more to the Norwegian and Swedish prices is simply limited transmission capacity.
Increased expectations for winter prices
But at the same time that Finland is experiencing extreme prices, there is bad electricity news in Norway going forward. Last week, electricity prices fell, but a change in the weather has now sent price expectations skyrocketing:
– Throughout last week the weather became milder and milder, but over the weekend this turned completely around. Now there is 5–6 TWh of precipitation that has been lost, and some completely different temperatures, says Lilleholt.
This now means that expectations for winter prices are increasing markedly:
– If we look at the electricity contracts for the 1st quarter, we are talking about 73 euros for the entire Nordic region, and a surcharge of around 25 euros for southern Norway. Then we are talking prices with taxes of 115-120 øre on average, says Lilleholt.