Lula’s victory gives hope for the Amazon. Norway resumes rainforest cooperation with Brazil

RIO DE JANEIRO / OSLO (Aftenposten): Under Bolsonaro, the Amazon rainforest has become a climate bomb. Now the world hopes that Lula da Silva will be able to turn the tide.

Lula’s supporters celebrated through the night in the streets of Rio de Janeiro after it became clear that the former president had won the election in Brazil.

But the jubilation spreads far beyond the country’s borders. The election result could have a decisive impact on the global climate.

Because while deforestation in the Amazon has accelerated under Bolsonaro, Lula’s policies can reduce deforestation by over 90 percent. This shows an analysis from the website Carbon Brief. arrow-outward-link

During Lula’s previous presidency, deforestation fell dramatically. Preservation of the Amazon has been one of his main issues in the election campaign.

– If he continues where he left off and does what he said in the election campaign, this bodes very well, says Climate and Development Minister Espen Barth Eide.

He says the government will contact Lula’s transition team to resume rainforest cooperation with Brazil.

This means that Lula can get access to up to NOK 7 billion in Norwegian rainforest support. Eide confirms this to Aftenposten. The money has been frozen in an account in Brazil since Bolsonaro took over.

Forest conservation in reverse

Brazil is one of the countries that signed an agreement on deforestation during the climate summit in Glasgow last year. Over 100 countries have agreed to stop and reverse deforestation by 2030. The agreement was seen as one of the biggest advances at the summit.

But there is no indication that Bolsonaro has followed through on the agreement. On the contrary:

The president was elected to open up larger areas of rainforest for agriculture and mining. Before the election, he worked hard to get through a controversial new legislative package. In civil society, it was referred to as a mortal threat to the Amazon.

Under Bolsonaro, deforestation has increased by 77 percent. In comparison, deforestation was reduced by 68 per cent in the period 2003 to 2010 under Lula’s leadership.

According to The Guardian, over two billion trees have been burned or cut down during his presidency. September was the worst forest fire month in over ten years in Brazil. In just three weeks, an area of ​​forest the size of New York City burned.

But why is it so important to the world what happens to the Amazon?

Approaching critical point

The rainforests absorb and store enormous amounts of CO₂. Around 11 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions now come from deforestation. The Amazon alone binds up more CO₂ than the entire world emits in the course of two years.

If the Paris Agreement’s target of a maximum of 2 degrees of warming is to be reached, it is therefore crucial to save what is left of the rainforests.

But the huge cuts in the Amazon have dramatically changed the climate effect of the world’s largest rainforest. Over the past six years, logging and fires have led to more CO₂ being released from the Amazon than the forest absorbs arrow-outward-link .

If development continues, the Amazon could become an emissions bomb.

There are already signs that the Amazon is approaching the tipping point. This means that the systems around the forest have become so vulnerable that they can suddenly lose their ability to maintain themselves. Then the forest will disappear at a rapid pace, without the “help” of logging and fires.

Asking the world to pay close attention

The Rainforest Fund says Lula’s victory gives hope and momentum for the protection of the rainforest. They are asking the international community to do what they can to ensure that Lula succeeds.

– Lula’s previous government reduced deforestation significantly, but his starting point this time is much more dramatic. He needs international managers, investors and companies to understand his responsibility and support him so that he can resume this work quickly, says the organisation’s leader Tørris Jæger.

But he points out that Lula has also spoken about the need for more infrastructure and industry. If this is not done correctly, it can lead to more deforestation. Therefore, the international community must carefully monitor whether the development is going in the right direction before paying support for forest conservation.

7 billion unused rainforest kroner

Norway has paid over NOK 8 billion to Brazil through the forest conservation programme. The money has been paid as a reward for the fact that in the ten years from 2008-2018, Brazil reduced deforestation significantly.

Most of the money has been paid to the Amazon Fund, which is run by the Brazilian Development Bank. Norway is part of the steering group.

But in 2019, Bolsonaro’s government suddenly broke the agreement by changing the guidelines for the fund. Norway responded by freezing all new payments. The money that was already in the account was also frozen.

There are now around NOK 7 billion frozen in an account in the Amazon Fund. Eide says they will give Lula access to the funds as soon as the formalities surrounding the structure of the fund are ready. According to him, it can go quickly.

– I think it is wise that we are clear now in Brazil that help is coming, says Eide.

– Does it hold that the formalities are in place, or do you have to see results before you receive the money?

– We have to see what kind of plans they make. What you say in an election campaign is one thing, what you do is another. So the payments will not come on January 1. Even if the president’s name is Lula, they come under certain conditions, he says.

In a week, a new round of climate negotiations will start in Egypt. Eide says the signals coming from Lula will be important, even if he does not take over until January 1.

– It will be important for the negotiations what the future Brazil thinks. It will be a bit like the USA after the election. Then Trump was in power, but people were concerned a lot about what was to come, he says.